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123
18th March 2014, 07:49 AM
see commment section:

http://www.thedomains.com/2014/03/16/new-gtld-domain-registrations-pass-the-250000-mark/#comments

frank.schilling PERMALINK
There is no market yet for new G’s today (March 16th 2014) – no market at all – in fact this is still that magic moment where many of the best are just sitting there, or yet to come out. We see people picking them up each day like pennies from heaven. It’s crazy.. The deals are too-good. So good that people talk themselves out of it like Florida Swamp land in Miami in 1920 .. In a few short years Flagler’s trains will be arriving and people will be pumping the swamp, filling it and selling it for a million an acre. This is so much like the .com boom which began 1995, albeit on a more muted scale with only insiders in the know and the general public largely unaware due to poor execution on the part of established registrars. If I have one regret its that there is just one of me. I’d love to have 7 extra hours in the day to scoop some of the bargains and may yet begin if I have time once we’re done with the registrar. Mike Berkens sees it and I see him participating. He may wind up winning like Charlie Sheen, if he can navigate between the raindrops and pick up a bunch of gems before the masses catch on. I’m honestly shocked at how ‘deer in the headlights’ many of the people I count as smart have been in this. Mark this post/comment thread as a dateline and google it in a few years. To see that I called it

The days of the corresponding .com working for ‘everything’ are over. I mean they are still alive in this moment, but the you are looking at the light from a dead star if you think you can slap a com on everything and its viable forever. When the last new G rolls in GA behavior will begin changing. That is a new reality. .COM doesn’t go away (no single string will be stronger unless Google does a good job with .Web) but .com gets marginalized from here on out.

So this all comes back to my point that people pay millions for great .com’s because they expect the price to go up, and because there is no viable alternative.. At some point owning a .com is going to look more like leasing real estate than buying it. At some point .com is not going to appear more valuable tomorrow. The uncertainty of a diminishing lease has shown itself to work poorly in real estate. Before this process I thought .com would only go up forever. Now that brands, google, amazon, and thousands of others are coming I don’t think that’s the case anymore. In inflation adjusted terms .com values are at or near their high water mark and in time the corresponding use (it working for everything) will diminish as well. Perhaps in the farther future .com will have a resurgence one day as a nostalgia play but a lot has to happen between here and there.

the most interesting quote:

Perhaps in the farther future .com will have a resurgence one day as a nostalgia play but a lot has to happen between here and there.

A bit premature to declare .com dead?

Rubber Duck
18th March 2014, 08:01 AM
What a load of bullshit.

Kind of reminds me of when he was chasing after long tail dot coms. How did that work out Frank?

Yes, he is running a registry. And he is talking his book.

Frank made out big time in the early days of dot com. Not seen much since to suggest that he is even as clued up as RS.

And no dot com is not going to get marginalised. Dot com is about to expand massively. Just not in a way that he would even acknowledge when it happens.

123
18th March 2014, 11:35 AM
That is a new reality. .COM doesn’t go away (no single string will be stronger unless Google does a good job with .Web) but .com gets marginalized from here on out.

this is shocking as well. he is even considering that .web could replace .com if google did a good job.

how come that .net which is better than .web did not replace .com?

Rubber Duck
18th March 2014, 02:31 PM
Yeah, pretty much based on its usage by Arnie in some rediculous sci-fi film which was made when Frank was a kid.

squirrel
18th March 2014, 02:59 PM
he's just human after all :-D