View Full Version : A 3rd Party Observer on the Future of IDNS - Failures/Success
damitssam
1st August 2006, 11:41 PM
After doing a small bit of research, I would like to give a 3rd party outside observation on IDNS.
IMHO, IDNs will indeed make some people extremely rich, but others will never see their fortunes fall.
It basically boils down to this: traffic and ease of typeablity.
I do not like how everyone in this forum is screaming how each one of them will become an IDN millionare. The fact is you wont. Like all other markets, around 10% will become really really successful. More then half will get little or no return.
The way I see IDNS is through the perspective of the keyboard, which brings me to this question.
How in the world will the chinese be able to type a chinese domain QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY. I know you can type in chinese with the RIGHT program, but you do know it is a pain in the ass to type characters right?
You must type in the pin yin version, then choose the word by clicking on it, which will then finally appear on the computer screen.
This way of typing is quite ineffective and SLOW. The typical internet user will NOT Waste his time typing pin yin correctly in order to reach a website....
I think that all 3+ Chinese character domains are worthless and will never materialize due to this laziness factor.
It really puzzles me why people are registering all kinds of chinese idns.
This is the chinese keyboard:
http://libai.math.ncu.edu.tw/bcc16/pool/image/mini-keyboard.jpg
You CANT type 99% of the all chinese keywords directly via keyboard. IT IS A PAIN to do so!!!
Same with Japanese characters.
Now, onto IDNS that will prosper.
Notice that this is the SPANISH keyboard:
http://www.sussex.ac.uk/its/facilities/pc/keyboards/spanish.gif
Now, it looks like the english keyboard except for one small thing... it has the ñ symbol.
A typical spanish user CAN type in the ñ easily, as if typing in another letter.
THIS is what the goldmine in IDNS really is for! Once IE7 does become released España.com will be worth a TON of money! Easily typable in the native language = $$$$$$.
I hope you see what I mean.
In a NUTSHELL: IDNS that can be typed easily as a "letter" on the keyboard are the ones that will get traffic when IE7 is released. It is imperative to register these names before the general public is aware of such things.
I do not see Japanese or Chinese domains taking off due to the complexity of typing domain names.
Let me know if you have any comments,
Sam
Olney
1st August 2006, 11:47 PM
If your concern is typing...
Please stay & I will fully explain the Japanese perspective....
I just wanted to post first as a place holder...
& others don't let this get into a grudgematch if one isn't familiar with typing in Japanese or Chinese.
thegenius1
1st August 2006, 11:48 PM
After doing a small bit of research,
I do not see Japanese or Chinese domains taking off due to the complexity of typing domain names.
Let me know if you have any comments,
Sam
http://inventory.overture.com/d/searchinventory/suggestion/?mkt=jp
http://inventory.overture.com/d/searchinventory/suggestion/?mkt=hk
http://google.com/trends
Pick a Japanese or a Chinese Word and plug it into one of these two services then explain to us the difference between search and typing in domains.
You can perform this excersise with many keywords , it should give you a good perspective of the typing habits of the Natives
http://www.idnaffiliates.com/idnebook-com/KaraokeTrends.bmp
Olney
1st August 2006, 11:55 PM
To think about the Japanese & Chinese perspective.
Please think like a Native & not as one who isn't completely fluent in the language.
Typing in Japanese or Chinese is as natural as breathing. I'm not even Japanese & can email & chat faster in Japanese than English.
May I ask WHY would you assume anyone or any nation is NOT comfortable typing in their native language...
1. In English we have to type a SPACE & hit SHIFT for every capital letter.
In Japanese you hit shift to change the characters at the end of the word..
What's the difference?
There are no complaints about Japanese & Chinese typing. Young Japanese use email & surf the internet easily, they email constantly in Japanese. They have no issues or problems at all.
So if this is your 3rd party view I think I'm just explaining to you. It's not valid. I work in Search Marketing, & SEO in Tokyo. I've only heard from NON Japanese that typing in Japanese is hard. I've NEVER heard from a Japanese person that typing in Japanese is hard because they would LOOK LIKE A FOOL...
blastfromthepast
2nd August 2006, 12:04 AM
People who don't speak English will not type in English domain names very well. That's for sure.
They will use their own language, using whatever tools there are for input. If you think those languages, or input tools are complicated, that's too bad for you. Start taking Chinese lessons in your spare time. Then react in shock when you realize little kids speak Chinese perfectly even though you stumble through basic concepts. Your post is the same kind of reaction. Wow! Look, there are complicated languages, more complicated then mine, amazing how do those guys over there use them? Wow, dude, they can type in Chinese too! How complicated it must be! Surely, they will never get through writing a letter in Chinese, there are thousands of chracters to choose from! How on earth can they decide which ones to use?!
What you say has no bearing on what end-users, especially end users who speak no English.
Get this: the Japanese Kana keyboard is actually more effective than English. It outputs whole syllables in one keypress.
Edit: I guess you are Chinese, so the above is not relevant.
damitssam
2nd August 2006, 12:06 AM
Both my parents are native chinese. I had to myself type up a paper for chinese school. It was a pure pain in the butt. Took me several hours to write a single page of mainland characters.
I admit i have no experience with the japanese language ( i assumed they had a similar system like the chinese) . Perhaps you can explain to me how they type?
Olney
2nd August 2006, 12:07 AM
Also typing in Japanese or Chinese is more of a developed system than many who do not type think.
Yes there if you type a word like Haken you might get a few different choices for the kanji.
Here's what people who don't type, wouldn't know.
COMPUTERS REMEMBER THE MOST COMMON USED VERSION BY YOU AUTOMATIC...
That's right if I always type haken 派遣 & hit space it automatically gives me the version I use the most often.
Typing in Asian languages is very developed please don't be mislead by anyone telling you otherwise... Switching an encode is ONE button, not an issue..
ask a Japanese person "that's computer literate", & ask them to type something in Japanese. See if they tell you it's too hard or even seem like it's an issue.
In my office there's more than 40 Japanese employees typing all day....
I've asked them constantly
what's better typing in ShibuyaMise.com
or 渋谷店.com ?
The answer is the same
They wouldn't try to type in the first one at all. They'd type it out in Japanese & try to search for it. It's a FACT!!!!
Olney
2nd August 2006, 12:13 AM
Ok your opinion is of one that I assume does not function in Chinese. Do you always type in Chinese? How is your level of Chinese? How's your level of Kanji? (I'm not trying to put you on the spot but it's it's related)
I mean we can only look at the perspective of those who function in the language.
I knew Japanese in the States that were American & couldn't function to save their life in Japanese. I mean if I look at Chinese domaining sites there is literally over 30,000 members on the biggest Chinese domaining site... They seem to be typing very well.
I think it's just your level of Chinese personally (again not a shot at you) because you don't usually type in Chinese.
Let's see what Chinese natives think... Giant types Chinese on the site often, & I've never heard him say typing in Chinese was difficult.
Both my parents are native chinese. I had to myself type up a paper for chinese school. It was a pure pain in the butt. Took me several hours to write a single page of mainland characters.
I admit i have no experience with the japanese language ( i assumed they had a similar system like the chinese) . Perhaps you can explain to me how they type?
blastfromthepast
2nd August 2006, 12:13 AM
Both my parents are native chinese. I had to myself type up a paper for chinese school. It was a pure pain in the butt. Took me several hours to write a single page of mainland characters.
Well, you could have written it in traditional characters and then converted it to simplified. You have no trouble with those, right?
rhys
2nd August 2006, 12:27 AM
Thank you for raising this issue which is commonly brought up by those thinking through IDNs for the first time. I'm proud of us for being relatively restrained (we aren't always). I hope that we can convince you away from your views, but if we can't that is ok too.
My question to you is how do you think that people in China and Japan write essays, articles, dissertations, blogs, books? Do you seriously think that we all just kind of dictate spoken Japanese into a tape recorder and send it to India to be transcribed into English and later machine translated into printed Japanese? Or do you think they just handwrite it and OCR it? Perhaps its little typing fairies? I think not.
The answer is the Japanese and Chinese type in Japanese and Chinese. The proof of that is that they read in Japanese and Chinese. Someone has to be generating all that content, and those people are likely typing all that content. Please disprove me.
IDNCowboy
2nd August 2006, 12:39 AM
After doing a small bit of research, I would like to give a 3rd party outside observation on IDNS.
IMHO, IDNs will indeed make some people extremely rich, but others will never see their fortunes fall.
It basically boils down to this: traffic and ease of typeablity.
I do not like how everyone in this forum is screaming how each one of them will become an IDN millionare. The fact is you wont. Like all other markets, around 10% will become really really successful. More then half will get little or no return.
The way I see IDNS is through the perspective of the keyboard, which brings me to this question.
How in the world will the chinese be able to type a chinese domain QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY. I know you can type in chinese with the RIGHT program, but you do know it is a pain in the ass to type characters right?
You must type in the pin yin version, then choose the word by clicking on it, which will then finally appear on the computer screen.
This way of typing is quite ineffective and SLOW. The typical internet user will NOT Waste his time typing pin yin correctly in order to reach a website....
I think that all 3+ Chinese character domains are worthless and will never materialize due to this laziness factor.
It really puzzles me why people are registering all kinds of chinese idns.
This is the chinese keyboard:
http://libai.math.ncu.edu.tw/bcc16/pool/image/mini-keyboard.jpg
You CANT type 99% of the all chinese keywords directly via keyboard. IT IS A PAIN to do so!!!
Same with Japanese characters.
Now, onto IDNS that will prosper.
Notice that this is the SPANISH keyboard:
http://www.sussex.ac.uk/its/facilities/pc/keyboards/spanish.gif
Now, it looks like the english keyboard except for one small thing... it has the ñ symbol.
A typical spanish user CAN type in the ñ easily, as if typing in another letter.
THIS is what the goldmine in IDNS really is for! Once IE7 does become released España.com will be worth a TON of money! Easily typable in the native language = $$$$$$.
I hope you see what I mean.
In a NUTSHELL: IDNS that can be typed easily as a "letter" on the keyboard are the ones that will get traffic when IE7 is released. It is imperative to register these names before the general public is aware of such things.
I do not see Japanese or Chinese domains taking off due to the complexity of typing domain names.
Let me know if you have any comments,
Sam
How do people write essays in school in their native language? I'm sure each character take several strokes. It is natural and easy for them.
We aren't that dumb ;-). There have been several discussions on how to type them on a keyboard. Many natives can type their language pretty quickly.
Many people on here will become millionaires. The people that are getting in NOW are likely not to become as rich.
Why? Most of the members here started around January. There are some other people that started in 2000. Within the last few months prime words have been picked dry. Those that are looking now are definitely not getting as many names as they could have if they had gotten in early. Already look at nude.com - it is up to $2000
Look at snapnames.. IE 7 isn't even final yet and the market is taking off.
Olney
2nd August 2006, 12:50 AM
I do not like how everyone in this forum is screaming how each one of them will become an IDN millionare. The fact is you wont. Like all other markets, around 10% will become really really successful. More then half will get little or no return.
On a positive note I almost agree with this. I believe that current members make up a small percentage of IDNers or investors that also invest in IDN Domains, that will make up the total industry 3 or 4 years from now.
I strongly do believe that many of the current forum members will be included in that 10%.. & many others that will be in the 50% that will at least turn a good profit.
Those that come on board one year from now without native language skills will be in the worst position. Those coming in later with investment funding will be able to get good investment domains.
IDNCowboy
2nd August 2006, 12:53 AM
On a positive note I almost agree with this. I believe that current members make up a small percentage of IDNers or investors that also invest in IDN Domains, that will make up the total industry 3 or 4 years from now.
I strongly do believe that many of the current forum members will be included in that 10%.. & many others that will be in the 50% that will at least turn a good profit.
Those that come on board one year from now without native language skills will be in the worst position. Those coming in later with investment funding will be able to get good investment domains.
I have to partly disagree.
Have you seen nice one worder .com's go for less than $50k? It is a good return on investment for $6.99 even 2-3 years down the road.
Ok, so your worst name sells for $10k later (perhaps you got a few dollars a click k/w) you'll still do ok financially.
I believe that most of the members that joined in January-Feb that were taking a huge risk will reap the best benefits.
bwhhisc
2nd August 2006, 01:17 AM
I think that all 3+ Chinese character domains are worthless and will never materialize due to this laziness factor. It really puzzles me why people are registering all kinds of chinese idns.
Many Chinese domainers are registering 4 character idns, in particular the symbols for a "City" combined with a service- ie. "Hotel", or "Real Estate", or "Employment" etc. Take a visit to www.idnclub.com (Chinese language idn forum)and check out the showcase (many 4 character idns) and ask your opinion there as well. Anxious to hear back from you...
Olney
2nd August 2006, 01:26 AM
There's over 600 members currently.
I believe the most active 100 or 200 members will do the best. I believe there is going to be at least 500 times more people interested in IDNs in the coming years. Our current numbers are small compared to this.
I'm just saying currently you can go into 3 categories
1. Be in the top 10% of the market 5 years from now
2. If only 50% of the market of IDNers make a good profit "5 years from now" most of the remaining current members should fall into this category.
3. Mess up before the market opens some how, get backrupt, drop names etc...
I think we are thinking along the same lines Jeff...
thegenius1
2nd August 2006, 01:50 AM
http://www.idnaffiliates.com/idnebook-com/ChineseParking.bmp
I think this Screenshot of Some of Mr. Ducks Chinese IDN's parked for Less then 24 hours can shed some light on some of the above comments ;)
Giant
2nd August 2006, 02:57 AM
I do not like how everyone in this forum is screaming how each one of them will become an IDN millionare. The fact is you wont. Like all other markets, around 10% will become really really successful. More then half will get little or no return.
The first condition that decides whether you will be a millionair or not is whether you have such a dream or not. If you do, you will. If you don't, you won't.
Never underestimate the power of dreaming!
How in the world will the chinese be able to type a chinese domain QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY. I know you can type in chinese with the RIGHT program, but you do know it is a pain in the ass to type characters right?
You must type in the pin yin version, then choose the word by clicking on it, which will then finally appear on the computer screen.
This way of typing is quite ineffective and SLOW. The typical internet user will NOT Waste his time typing pin yin correctly in order to reach a website....
The ease that the Chinese have when typing Chinese characters is the same ease you feel when you type English, EFFECTIVE and FAST.
The difficulty that you imagine the Chinese typer would have is simply non-existant. Your subjective view can't represent the fact.
The Chinese actually think the other way should be true. They don't understand why so "complicated and hard to remember" English is still being used today. Example:
Mississippi Department of Transportation = 密西西比运输部.
Which one do you think is easier to type? Of course, the Chinese one!
I do not see Japanese or Chinese domains taking off due to the complexity of typing domain names.
Sam
Bill Gate will let you see soon :)
*** Olney should be elected "Ambassador of IDN to the English speaking world"!
touchring
2nd August 2006, 03:13 AM
Both my parents are native chinese. I had to myself type up a paper for chinese school. It was a pure pain in the butt. Took me several hours to write a single page of mainland characters.
I admit i have no experience with the japanese language ( i assumed they had a similar system like the chinese) . Perhaps you can explain to me how they type?
What you are saying is nothing new, most mainlanders think that idns can't take off because of this reason, among others, but a good name is still a good name - ease of recall is more important than how fast you can type out a domain (for example, nothing beats numbers, but numbers are difficult to remember), and besides, some people will still use idns in time to come, especially when the pinyin option is not available. And in the worst case scenario, even if end user market for idn does not take off, we still can earn from type-in PPC.
alpha
2nd August 2006, 03:48 AM
Damitssam: I respect your post, and it is good to hear constructive critism. Without an apposing view, we are just in danger of all disappearng up our own arses.
I would encourage you to reply to this post, this CAN be an interesting debate, it doesn't have to turn into an arguement.
So please continue posting on this topic. :)
damitssam
2nd August 2006, 03:56 AM
This is great that everyone is politely answering my question.
However, I still dont have an answer. Can anyone show me how its done? I assume the methods havent changed since I did it (which is a long time ago) where you had to download a program, and then use "zhu yin or pin yin" to then type the pronouncation and then you chose the word by clicking on it.
I honestly just cant see how you can type fast if you have to "click" on a word. Can someone shed me some light... perhaps time has changed (i was using windows 95 back then i think XD).
Mississippi Department of Transportation = 密西西比运输部.
Which one do you think is easier to type? Of course, the Chinese one!
Well i stink at chinese now, but i imagine typing in ALL The pronouncation + the clicking takes longer then to type the Mississippi Department of Transportation.
Again, I am americanized so i really dunno whats the current trend.
And finally to add on a point: Why are so many frieking people registering SO MANY CHINESE IDNS? I mean the PPC market is currently horrible, why not go invest into the spanish market, or the arabic market, where MUCH better keywords are available... (i might just start soon once i sell off all my ASCII)
touchring
2nd August 2006, 04:01 AM
This is great that everyone is politely answering my question.
However, I still dont have an answer. Can anyone show me how its done? I assume the methods havent changed since I did it (which is a long time ago) where you had to download a program, and then use "zhu yin or pin yin" to then type the pronouncation and then you chose the word by clicking on it.
I honestly just cant see how you can type fast if you have to "click" on a word. Can someone shed me some light... perhaps time has changed (i was using windows 95 back then i think XD).
Well i stink at chinese now, but i imagine typing in ALL The pronouncation + the clicking takes longer then to type the Mississippi Department of Transportation.
Again, I am americanized so i really dunno whats the current trend.
Hehe, ic.
Olney
2nd August 2006, 04:39 AM
I'm not sure if you are just talking about the Chinese PPC market but I'll let you know that I have over 200 Japanese keywords that are over $5 strong a click for advertisers.
In Japan the PPC income is way more than there. I got plenty of keywords in the $20 a click range too.
I'm glad you didn't leave us hanging. As I've heard a few versions ago there wasn't even a Chinese version of windows. I would assume that the system has been upgraded a bit.
IDNCowboy
2nd August 2006, 04:54 AM
I'm not sure if you are just talking about the Chinese PPC market but I'll let you know that I have over 200 Japanese keywords that are over $5 strong a click for advertisers.
In Japan the PPC income is way more than there. I got plenty of keywords in the $20 a click range too.
I'm glad you didn't leave us hanging. As I've heard a few versions ago there wasn't even a Chinese version of windows. I would assume that the system has been upgraded a bit.
True but in a market like China do you think we'll ever see dollars per click? China isn't a free market. Take a look at North Korea vs South Korea. Democratic South Korea is doing much better financially being a free market while communist North Korea is in shambles ;).
touchring
2nd August 2006, 04:57 AM
True but in a market like China do you think we'll ever see dollars per click? China isn't a free market. Take a look at North Korea vs South Korea. Democratic South Korea is doing much better financially being a free market while communist North Korea is in shambles ;).
China's now a chaotic free market - a mix of branded, overpriced copycats, pirated, and value goods. Whatever that can be made, can be bought.
IDNCowboy
2nd August 2006, 04:59 AM
China's now a chaotic free market - a mix of branded, overpriced copycats, pirated, and value goods.
right which means who would want to get the more expensive brand name when you can get cheap pirated stuff off the streets? Customers in China have to learn to pay for their stuff before advertisers will treat them seriously.
touchring
2nd August 2006, 05:04 AM
right which means who would want to get the more expensive brand name when you can get cheap pirated stuff off the streets? Customers in China have to learn to pay for their stuff before advertisers will treat them seriously.
Change is only a matter of time, question is how long it will take.
Also, is the issue of mentality, for example overpricing in Western societies is perceived as beneath honesty, but this is not the case in Asia.
burnsinternet
2nd August 2006, 07:21 AM
And finally to add on a point: Why are so many frieking people registering SO MANY CHINESE IDNS? I mean the PPC market is currently horrible, why not go invest into the spanish market, or the arabic market, where MUCH better keywords are available... (i might just start soon once i sell off all my ASCII)
Oh, my gosh. Have you looked for Spanish and Arabic lately? I started in IDNs with only Spanish on my mind. All the dot coms I wanted and the ones I did not want were taken long ago. The good dot nets were long gone, too.
alpha
2nd August 2006, 07:31 AM
... why not go invest into the spanish market, or the arabic market, where MUCH better keywords are available... (i might just start soon once i sell off all my ASCII)...
hehe. spoken like a true noob.
that ship sailed wayyy ago.
Prodigy
2nd August 2006, 07:40 AM
I hear alot abt typing and clicking... i type Chinese without a mouse... theyre all numbered so you can see which character set you want its just an extra tap on a number to get the character string in the box.
Besides, its not a "click" a character either... sometimes it's a "click" every 4 characters which would be half your sentence... honestly I can probably type something in Chinese almost as quickly as I type in English because theres economy in the language structure.
burnsinternet
2nd August 2006, 07:51 AM
Or list those available Spanish and Arabic keywords, please!
Rubber Duck
2nd August 2006, 09:18 AM
Entirely agree, the Internet should be run by Americans for Americans. We don't want any of those weird characters screwing with the American Dream.;)
Seriously, these discussions remind me of my Granny blaming changes in the weather on Radio Waves.:p
bwhhisc
2nd August 2006, 11:09 AM
Entirely agree, the Internet should be run by Americans for Americans. We don't want any of those weird characters screwing with the American Dream.;)
Thats right Duck. And no keyboards allowed that lets anyone type faster than us!
We have rapidly sliding productivity standards to maintain. lol
Rubber Duck
2nd August 2006, 11:45 AM
Thats right Duck. And no keyboards allowed that lets anyone type faster than us!
We have rapidly sliding productivity standards to maintain. lol
Take a tip from the British. If you are having problems, just send out a naval patrol. Park up and shell them from about 3 miles off-shore. That usually does the trick!
Neptune
3rd August 2006, 04:20 AM
I hear alot abt typing and clicking... i type Chinese without a mouse... theyre all numbered so you can see which character set you want its just an extra tap on a number to get the character string in the box.
Besides, its not a "click" a character either... sometimes it's a "click" every 4 characters which would be half your sentence... honestly I can probably type something in Chinese almost as quickly as I type in English because theres economy in the language structure.
This sort of answer is very productive on this thread. While arguing the points for the amount of times it is typed into a browser does help, answering damitssam's question and describing directly how the typing is completed paints a much clearer picture.
I'm curious what sort of training goes into learning this typing. I remember taking a one semester class in high school that basically tought me how to type just fine. Is this offered in for typing on the Chinese keyboard (or other languages)? I'm sure they are, but how advanced is it? For instance, if damitssam had to use a special program back in '95, how new is the current chinese keyboard and software to that population? While some may be fluent in it, is it only a limited population, or is this a standard taught in all schools (that can afford computers) now?
I imagine Japan is much more advanced in terms of typing education, but Olney, could you perhaps elaborate briefly on the situation as you see it there?
Any other languages?
Olney
3rd August 2006, 05:12 AM
They don't teach typing in school as far as I know.
A Japanese kid can spend about an hour trying to type in Japanese & never forget.
Years ago there was special programs for Asian languages. It was the same for Japanese years ago.
Now the Chinese & Japanese system is made for Asia. For Japanese there is no special "software" or special keyboard.
Just think Windows 95 was like 10 years ago... just think about that... 10 years ago in computer operating system time, & comparing it to now...
touchring
3rd August 2006, 05:17 AM
They don't teach typing in school as far as I know.
A Japanese kid can spend about an hour trying to type in Japanese & never forget.
Years ago there was special programs for Asian languages. It was the same for Japanese years ago.
Now the Chinese & Japanese system is made for Asia. For Japanese there is no special "software" or special keyboard.
Just think Windows 95 was like 10 years ago... just think about that... 10 years ago in computer operating system time, & comparing it to now...
Chinese and Japanese are very different in that Chinese uses Pinyin (ABC) as alphabets whereas Japanese uses Kana.
markits
3rd August 2006, 06:17 AM
Department of Transportation = 运输部.
With the Chinese processing system I am using, I only need to type "ysh 8 b 5" for 运输部.
"Department of Transportation" in English.
"ysh 8 b 5" in Chinese characters.
Which one is easier?
And yes, "ysh 8 b 5" is Pinyin, the slowest way for typing in Chinese characters.
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