Countries in order of importance....

[IDNCowboy]

I know that I've started alot of threads but I think we all need to share our opinions on the subject matter. Does everyone agree it is like this... in order of dominance the domains that are worthy to get with 1. being the best.


1. China
2. Japan
3. Russia
4. Arabic

and the list goes on.........

[Edwin]

I think if you're talking 18 months from now, the list might be...

1. Japan
2. Russia
3. China
4. Arabic

but 5 years from now it will look like the one you posted.

That's factoring in greater likelihood of typeins and higher bids/more advertisers.

[thegenius1]

I know that I've started alot of threads but I think we all need to share our opinions on the subject matter. Does everyone agree it is like this... in order of dominance the domains that are worthy to get with 1. being the best.


1. China
2. Japan
3. Russia
4. Arabic

and the list goes on.........


From my observation this seems to be correct:)

[IDNCowboy]

I think if you're talking 18 months from now, the list might be...

1. Japan
2. Russia
3. China
4. Arabic

but 5 years from now it will look like the one you posted.

That's factoring in greater likelihood of typeins and higher bids/more advertisers.
I'm thinking towards the far future :P

[huronargentino]

Now

1- Japan
2- China
3- Russia
4- Spanish and other latin
5- Arabic


Future

1- China
2- Japan
3- Arabic
4- Russia
5- Spanish and Latin

[idn]

I think these lists are 100% speculative at this point. SO many other factors to consider.

Just a few...


In China- .com vs .cn vs. even com.cn

In Japan- .com vs. .jp

.ru is very strong in Russia. It blows the .com out of the water for sites written entirely in Russian. When will the .ru be idn compatible?

Also consider that the Arabic language just does not have one cctld- this could be a positive or a negative.

The precise implementation of idn.idn.

I could add many other examples...

Right now it appears that China and Japan present the greatest opportunity in the long run, but we will not know until things start panning out.

[IDNCowboy]

I think these lists are 100% speculative at this point. SO many other factors to consider.

Just a few...


In China- .com vs .cn vs. even com.cn

In Japan- .com vs. .jp

.ru is very strong in Russia. It blows the .com out of the water for sites written entirely in Russian. When will the .ru be idn compatible?

Also consider that the Arabic language just does not have one cctld- this could be a positive or a negative.

The precise implementation of idn.idn.

I could add many other examples...

Right now it appears that China and Japan present the greatest opportunity in the long run, but we will not know until things start panning out.
who knows but i think .ru is $150/year per domain? anyplace cheaper?

[glow]

http://webnames.ru/en/index.pl
$20/y

who knows but i think .ru is $150/year per domain? anyplace cheaper?

[IDNCowboy]

http://webnames.ru/en/index.pl
$20/y
is that in USD? Do they support IDN

[gammascalper]

That's the plug-in company. Caveat Emptor.

[glow]

is that in USD? Do they support IDN

yes it's USD
.RU is not supporting IDN

[touchring]

That's factoring in greater likelihood of typeins and higher bids/more advertisers.

- i have never considered type-in of a few dollars a year. Capital appreciation is more important.

And besides, many of the type-in are basically spam to advertisers and there will be a crackdown sooner or later - which advertiser will want to pay for type-in from russia or china when the target audience is american. Of cos, there are japanese and chinese, and even arabic google ads - i've never seen any from russia - but sedo do not show them all the time.

Quality of keyword is a more important factor.

[touchring]

I think these lists are 100% speculative at this point. SO many other factors to consider.

Just a few...


In China- .com vs .cn vs. even com.cn

In Japan- .com vs. .jp

.ru is very strong in Russia. It blows the .com out of the water for sites written entirely in Russian. When will the .ru be idn compatible?

Also consider that the Arabic language just does not have one cctld- this could be a positive or a negative.

The precise implementation of idn.idn.

I could add many other examples...

Right now it appears that China and Japan present the greatest opportunity in the long run, but we will not know until things start panning out.


.com and .net are almost equally strong in arabic, definitely stronger than .com.sa, or .ae, or .com.ku.

almost every russian site i've seen is .ru. if idn.ru comes out, idn.com in russian will become second class.

.com is very strong in china, due to the use of .com.cn, and moderately strong in japan.

type-in from europe is greater due to the greater use of firefox in europe.

[Rubber Duck]

I am not sure that we are looking at this from the correct perspective.

What is important is the market, whether it be end users or simply other speculators.

What scripts would sell right now and for how much is a Key Factor. That puts China right up there with Japan, but surprisingly to me Latin IDN are way out in front, but Latin usage of IDN is very limited.

What are people buying and in which scripts is the ability to new reg good keywords rapidly disappearing? Well in Latin this went some time ago, which probably explains the prices. This is probably due to greater accessibility for most speculators. In Japanese and Chinese it is starting to get really quite tough. Chinese is probably more difficult than Japanese in this respect, but currently I think most shopping baskets are out for Russian. I think this is the case because it still easy pickings, and because the Wordstats tool givez non-speakers a good measure of value, which is distinctly missing in both Chinese and Arabic.

Arabic will undoubtedly be the next stop on the iterinary, once Russian starts to dry up and after that it will probably be Hindi, although Thai is starting to become hot property.

I think most speculartors are looking long-term, so short term considerations are being largely ignored. Even factors like disposable income are being discounted, as these will change with time.

The main factor without doubt is the perceived size of the market in terms of first language users. This means the ultimate pecking order would be:

Chinese
Arabic
Hindi
Russian
Japanese

In the short-term Japanese is hoisted to the top of the list because of high disposable income, and Hindi is at the bottom of the list because of the commonly held misconception that Indians just speak English. Hindi is also hindered by technical factors such as recent introduction of portable fonts, lack of bi-lingual keyboard, low broadband penetration. Add to this problems speculators face due to the small amount of accessible webpages and lack of any search statistics and you can see why Hindi is still moribund, but make no mistake this is a 500kg Gorilla that is starting to stir.

Dave

[touchring]

i would mostly agree with dave's projection for the longer term, except japanese will rank after china and korea. korea is growing very fast - they had already beaten the japanese on many fronts - film/drama exports, many electronic products, and have a large hinterland market - china. with japan's progressively aging population, the advantage will only increase with time.

in comparison with korea, japan's economy is very inefficient - with many redundant workers and jobs being created to keep people occupied, and not the other way round.

china will not reach the disposal income of japan or korea for the next 20 years, but will be a more significant market due to sheer size alone.

As for russia, just ask dave, how much money from russia is being siphoned to the uk every year - people are just running. the confidence isn't there. nothing is certain and guaranteed in russia right now - i'm referring to everyday living, not domains.

Chinese
korean
japanese
Arabic
Hindi
Russian

[Rubber Duck]

i would mostly agree with dave's projection for the longer term, except japanese will rank after china and korea. korea is growing very fast - they had already beaten the japanese on many fronts - film/drama exports, many electronic products, and have a large hinterland market - china. with japan's progressively aging population, the advantage will only increase with time.

china will not reach the disposal income or japan or korea for the next 20 years, but will be a more significant market due to sheer size.

Chinese
korean
japanese
Arabic
Hindi
Russian

I am sorry, I don't agree with your assessment of Korea. I think in the short-term we can expect some real fireworks there, as the uptake of IDN has been very high. Hangul, however, primarily caters for domestic Korean consumption, which whilst this likely to high on a per capita basis, is going to be very small beer in terms of the larger Asian picture.

Goods from South Korea still have to go by sea to get to China, the same as everyhwere else, so the Hinterland idea has limited appeal to me, but the Koreans are very active in China, and probably much better received than the Japanese.

In the short-term you could see some landmark deal in Korea, if the domain market has that level of transparency. Sedo is quite active in Korea, so they obviously see the potential of that market. I think Korea will, along with China, be ahead of Japan in terms of junking their ASCII domains for IDNs.

Korea, I think presents short-term opportunities rather than serious long-term investments. The problem is that much of the acquisition will need to done in the secondary markets, as I think all the really good terms will have gone.

Dave

[touchring]

Ever since the japanese left korea after 50 years of slavery style occupation, korea has progressed faster than any nation on earth, china included.

Today, broadband penetration is 80 per cent, twice of developed nations, and korea is also well ahead of its peer on idn takeup. korea's direct competitor is japan, and unless japan adopts american style policies to shake up it's banking sector and industries, i do not see how it can avoid not falling falling to 3rd place 15-20 years from now.

The last century was the tech manufacturing age, which benefited japan very well with a disciplined and samurai culture workforce. Today, we are in the information age, speed and fast decision making is more important.

[Rubber Duck]

every seen the japanese left korea after 50 years of occupation, korea has progressed faster than any nation on earth, china included.

today, broadband penetration is 80 per cent, twice of developed nations, and korea is also well ahead of its peer on idn takeup. korea's direct competitor is japan, and unless japan adopts american style policies to shake up it's banking sector and industries, i do not see how it cannot avoid falling to 3rd place 15 years from now.

I have worked with Koreans close-up, though not particularly recently. They are hard working and disciplined. However, much of their industry is built on the big company authoritarian model. Within these companies there is little or no encouragement of individual endeavour, and don't believe that Koreans are uniquely talented or particularly entrepreneurial.

I agree with you Japan is at a crossroads and I don't see them getting into top gear anytime soon. You are also correct in your assertions about Russia being in crisis. I think both of the countries will wake-up to the real world at some point, although with Russia, because it is such a large resource rich country, I cannot ever see it competing directly with dynamic economies of the Far East.

Dave

[idn]

The main factor without doubt is the perceived size of the market in terms of first language users. This means the ultimate pecking order would be:

Chinese
Arabic
Hindi
Russian
Japanese



I don't think this is necessarily the main factor, but one of the main factors. You also have to consider gdp per capita. For example, Japan has a gdp of 36,596 and India has a gdp of 622. Without getting too complex Japan has a lot more money and therefore advertisers will pay a lot more for advertising , etc. in Japan than a country such as India.

[idn]

.com and .net are almost equally strong in arabic, definitely stronger than .com.sa, or .ae, or .com.ku.

almost every russian site i've seen is .ru. if idn.ru comes out, idn.com in russian will become second class.

.com is very strong in china, due to the use of .com.cn, and moderately strong in japan.

type-in from europe is greater due to the greater use of firefox in europe.

.Ru IS very strong and the reason why I have been reluctant to register an abundance of Russian idns. If idn.ru is released I agree that the .com will become second class and .net will only hold value for prime keywords. This is only my opinion....

I don't agree that the .com and .net are almost equally strong in Arabic. The .nets get nowhere near the amount of type-ins and also while I believe they are both considered for development the .com is registered first in nearly all cases. I have seen only a few exceptions.

[Rubber Duck]

I don't think this is necessarily the main factor, but one of the main factors. You also have to consider gdp per capita. For example, Japan has a gdp of 36,596 and India has a gdp of 622. Without getting too complex Japan has a lot more money and therefore advertisers will pay a lot more for advertising , etc. in Japan than a country such as India.

GDP gaps are shrinking much faster than you realize. This is because of the acknowledged underlying appreciation of the value of some Asian currencies. The Yuan could quite easily quadruple in value over the next five years. The Yen is probably going nowhere fast. Salaries in China are free to grow much more rapidly without greatly impacting on competitive advantage, and growth is drastically underestimated. Believe me number of language speakers are a key factor in determining the future value of domains. As China is ten times the size of Japan, it won't take much for the Chinese economy to overhaul that of Japan and in many ways that has already happened. China imports more Oil than Japan does now.

Ok, India is a few years behind China, but as the differnential between the two grows India will start to pick up massive inward investment, and expatriate Indians from around the globe will start to kick start the Indian economy, not that it is that far behind China in terms of growth anyway. Longer term population is going to be the best determinant of economic potential.

Dave

[Edwin]

It only takes about 5 minutes of walking around central Tokyo to realise the insane amounts of money Japanese consumers are spending. GDP is averaged across the whole country, so what applies in the big cities is offset by the (generally older) thrifty country-dwellers, but everywhere you look women (mainly, but not exclusively) are absolutely loading up on branded goods, easily spending $1,000+ on a single shopping expedition.

This was the case even during the recent recession, and now that the dark clouds are fading away consumers are spending at an even faster rate. It's almost impossible to compare the level of consumption with that in other major cities (e.g. London) since the money is typically spent on different things. For example, people probably spend a lot more to service an average mortgage in London than in Tokyo - though of course they may end up with a bigger property for it. A typical woman in Tokyo might spend more on clothes in a month than somebody in London would in a year.

This is quite educational...
http://www.dentsu.com/news/2005/pdf/2005006-0217.pdf

Now imagine that probably 90% of that spend is occurring in Tokyo, Osaka and a few other major cities, and the picture gets better still.

GDP is a very fluffy measure - what really counts is "disposable income" i.e. what people are WILLING and ABLE to spend on buying stuff. On that basis, Japan is way way ahead of most other nations, especially when you factor in the relative ease of reaching the Japanese consumer (single language, smallish country).

[Rubber Duck]

It only takes about 5 minutes of walking around central Tokyo to realise the insane amounts of money Japanese consumers are spending. GDP is averaged across the whole country, so what applies in the big cities is offset by the (generally older) thrifty country-dwellers, but everywhere you look women (mainly, but not exclusively) are absolutely loading up on branded goods, easily spending $1,000+ on a single shopping expedition.

This was the case even during the recent recession, and now that the dark clouds are fading away consumers are spending at an even faster rate. It's almost impossible to compare the level of consumption with that in other major cities (e.g. London) since the money is typically spent on different things. For example, people probably spend a lot more to service an average mortgage in London than in Tokyo - though of course they may end up with a bigger property for it. A typical woman in Tokyo might spend more on clothes in a month than somebody in London would in a year.

This is quite educational...
http://www.dentsu.com/news/2005/pdf/2005006-0217.pdf

Now imagine that probably 90% of that spend is occurring in Tokyo, Osaka and a few other major cities, and the picture gets better still.

GDP is a very fluffy measure - what really counts is "disposable income" i.e. what people are WILLING and ABLE to spend on buying stuff. On that basis, Japan is way way ahead of most other nations, especially when you factor in the relative ease of reaching the Japanese consumer (single language, smallish country).


Yes, Tokyo is definitely out there on its own, but I think we have our bases reasonably well covered.

xn--1lqs71d.net 東京 Tokyo
xn--p8jau0izg.com とうきょう TOKYO


Dave

[drbiohealth]

WOW! kudos to Olney, Dave et al. on migrating to vbulletin. The forum now rocks! So much has changed since my last visit to this forum, dnjournal quote etc etc...great going guys.

I had been travelling for past few weeks in the remote areas of north India and was pleasantly surprised to know that there were more people in smaller towns using credit cards compared to their conterparts in bigger cities. Affluence there seems to be growing, one contributing factor there is perhaps the advent of "mobile phones".

Regarding which country will stand where is an irrelevant exercise in some sense because each country will always have some unique value. IMHO, I feel one would be better of building a niche in particular language rather than going everywhere. However, one may argue here that hedging in the other languages might reduce risk. Well, everything depends on one's preference, outlook, and risk taken. Personally, I would be more comfortable dealing with just one market.

If I were to put a rank my list would read something like,

Chinese
Hindi
Arabic
Russian
Japanese

Chinese and Hindi are concentrated in huge amounts in the two countries and thus have great values. Negative of Arabic is that its all fragmanted and not concentrated to a particular country in great amounts. Russia is a great country but is in transition.

[drbiohealth]

A point on GDP. GDP in India takes into account only the white money that is in circulation. However, unofficial figures put the unaccountable black money a lot more than the white money. I hope this clarifies...

[Rubber Duck]

I think what you are saying that nobody really has the vaguest idea of how big the Indian economy really is.

Dave

[touchring]

It only takes about 5 minutes of walking around central Tokyo to realise the insane amounts of money Japanese consumers are spending. GDP is averaged across the whole country, so what applies in the big cities is offset by the (generally older) thrifty country-dwellers, but everywhere you look women (mainly, but not exclusively) are absolutely loading up on branded goods, easily spending $1,000+ on a single shopping expedition.

This was the case even during the recent recession, and now that the dark clouds are fading away consumers are spending at an even faster rate. It's almost impossible to compare the level of consumption with that in other major cities (e.g. London) since the money is typically spent on different things. For example, people probably spend a lot more to service an average mortgage in London than in Tokyo - though of course they may end up with a bigger property for it. A typical woman in Tokyo might spend more on clothes in a month than somebody in London would in a year.

This is quite educational...
http://www.dentsu.com/news/2005/pdf/2005006-0217.pdf

Now imagine that probably 90% of that spend is occurring in Tokyo, Osaka and a few other major cities, and the picture gets better still.

GDP is a very fluffy measure - what really counts is "disposable income" i.e. what people are WILLING and ABLE to spend on buying stuff. On that basis, Japan is way way ahead of most other nations, especially when you factor in the relative ease of reaching the Japanese consumer (single language, smallish country).


I've been to tokyo in japan, small cities near Sapporo, and i've travelled to shanghai and many smaller places. You'll be surprised how much the chinese youngsters spend (city and small cities), and how much money walmart, carrefour, mcdonalds and kfc earn in china.

Even the small Xiamen city i'm now in, the 2 walmarts are packed with people and at anytime of the day, there are queues on every one of the 60 pay counters (20 rows and 3 counters staggered per row). Of cos, in terms of absolute monetary value, per capita spending is less due to cheaper cost of living in china. Cherry tomotoes cost only $0.60 per kg at Walmart - i believe it costs 10-20 times more in japan.

[drbiohealth]

Well, that's the reason why our finance minister is trying very hard to get in more people to pay taxes. Money in India is concentrated. However, the great middle class is slowly graduating to upper middle class. And the good part is that they are spending now. Looking at this habit, the industry's whos who (including Wal Mart) are making a beeline to start retail super store chains across India.

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=86497

I think what you are saying that nobody really has the vaguest idea of how big the Indian economy really is.

Dave

[drbiohealth]

Check this out...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/06/news/fortune500/walmart_india/

[touchring]

Walmart and Trustmart (a local discount supermart) trashed a lot of small supermarkets and shops in Xiamen when i was there 2 years ago. Today, i noticed many "seven-eleven" alike 24 hrs convenient stores replacing former mom and pop stores.

In China such things are allowed to happen - it's totally free competition and no one can complain. People just try and adapt, open another kind of shop, etc.

There's so much competition that the variety of vehicles one can find on streets is mind boggling - you got locally produced audi, volkswagens, and chevrolets (localized versions are all smaller), imported European, Korean, Japanese, American cars, 5-6 Chinese brands - there might be more.