Thailand in trouble -

[touchring]

Muslim insurgents oust Buddhists in south Thailand

http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/06/12/11/100wir_a5buddhists001.cfm

Thai Military Push Against Muslim Guerrillas Fails

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0612/S00228.htm


If they can't rein in the situation, the country unity will be in danger. Looks like the General can't solve the problem which he blamed Thaksin for failing to solve.

[domainguru]

Muslim insurgents oust Buddhists in south Thailand

http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/06/12/11/100wir_a5buddhists001.cfm

Thailand in trouble - Gen Sonthi, a Muslim, fails to rein in the insurgency in the South, one of the reasons for the coup, but instead it has become worst. :(

"So far, the migration is limited to a handful of villages"

Stop talking bollocks. And i mean that even after you removed the comment about insurgents in bkk, which there are none.

[touchring]

"So far, the migration is limited to a handful of villages"

Stop talking bollocks. And i mean that even after you removed the comment about insurgents in bkk, which there are none.



No bollocks, people are dying from fighting and tourists are fleeing Hatyai. General Sonthi's mandate is to solve the southern insurgency, but so far, the situation has not improved, if not deteriorated.

The insurgency is the primary reason for the coup, and it's no small matter for the military to overthrow a democratically elected government.

National unity itself is never a small matter, even if it is just 3 provinces, that's why the democratically elected government must go, Thaksin failed to rein in the insurgency.

The practice in much of Asia is country is above people, and the people of the country can be sacrificed for the country or King (for Thailand's case), unlike the UK or US where only the government elected by the people can rule.

[domainguru]

No bollocks, people are dying from fighting and tourists are fleeing Hatyai. General Sonthi's mandate is to solve the southern insurgency, but so far, the situation has not improved, if not deteriorated.

The insurgency is the primary reason for the coup, and it's no small matter for the military to overthrow a democratically elected government.

National unity itself is never a small matter, even if it is just 3 provinces, that's why the democratically elected government must go, Thaksin failed to rein in the insurgency.

Sorry, you are still talking bollocks. If you want to see how much bollocks you are talking, why not put back the original comment in about "insurgents taking over BKK". You have already edited your original post 2 times. Why not let what you say stand?

[touchring]

Sorry, you are still talking bollocks. If you want to see how much bollocks you are talking, why not put back the original comment in about "insurgents taking over BKK". You have already edited your original post 2 times. Why not let what you say stand?


I want to ensure only factual statements and accuracy. Let's debate like gentlemen. :)

If a military dictatorship is required to ensure the progress in the country, yes, by all means, go ahead, but if the dictatorship can't deliver it's promises, the King of Thailand should really stand up and appoint another government that can rein in the southern insurgency and uphold the rule of law.

It is still not too late to turn the situation around. :)

[domainguru]

I want to ensure only factual statements and accuracy. Why are you so emotional?

Let's debate like gentlemen. :)

If a military dictatorship is required to ensure the progress in the country, yes, by all means, go ahead, but if the dictatorship can't deliver it's promises, the King of Thailand should really stand up and appoint another government that can rein in the southern insurgency and uphold the rule of law.

1) If you want to debate like gentlemen, then please don't do things like delete comments you made about "insurgents taking over BKK". You can't post rubbish like that and get away with it. Where were the facts in that remark? But then again, where are the facts in the articles you quoted. Probably very few, just journos that have never visited Thailand reprinting stuff they see on the wires that day.

2) The separatist movement in the South has been a problem for many many years. Nobody can "solve" such a problem in a short time. Thaksin was removed for a huge number of issues involving massive corruption, not just because he couldn't "rein in the southern insurgency".

3) If you knew anything about Thailand, I would happily debate with you, but since that's not the case, I ain't gonna bother.

[touchring]

If Thaksin is guilty of corruption, he should be prosecuted according to law.

South East Asia has been doing great since the Asian Financial crisis, and i think all will hope that Thailand's new found prosperity the last 5 years will continue. Any instability in Thailand is going to affect the whole of Asia in some way or other.

It's still not too late for the situation to turn around.

:)

[Rubber Duck]

If Thaksin is guilty of corruption, he should be prosecuted according to law.

South East Asia has been doing great since the Asian Financial crisis, and i think all will hope that Thailand's new found prosperity the last 5 years will continue. Any instability in Thailand is going to affect the whole of Asia in some way or other.

It's still not too late for the situation to turn around.

:)

This is absolute bollucks. I know very little about Thailand or the Far East in general, but a little localised insurrection isn't about to ruin the entire economic fabric of the Far East. There has been huge problems in the Philiphines for decades. What impact has that had on China, Japan or Singapore? Absolutely none whatsoever.

Is Thailand strategically economically important? No. It is a comparatively small country which has progressed and will continue to progress more rapidly than many of its neighbours largely because of the work ethic and entrepreneurial spirit of its people. Nothing has changed there as far as I can tell.

[Wot]

As does DG , I live in Thailand.

I confirm you are talking bollocks.

There , we have threesome concuring.:)

[touchring]

Bullocks, yes, it would seem so, but there is already a precedence - the 1997 Asian Financial crisis was started by devaluation of the Thai Baht, and from there, spread around much of Asia like plague.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis

More long-term consequences include reversal of the relative gains made in the boom years just preceding the crisis. For example, the CIA World Factbook reports that the per capita income (measured by purchasing power parity) in Thailand declined from $8,800 to $8,300 between 1997 and 2005; in Indonesia it declined from $4,600 to $3,700; in Malaysia it declined from $11,100 to $10,400. Over the same period, world per capita income rose from $6,500 to $9,300 [6],[7]. Indeed, the CIA's analysis suggests the economy of Indonesia was still smaller in 2005 than it had been in 1997 despite a population increase of 30 million, suggesting an impact on that country similar to the Great Depression.

In Thailand, GDP numbers could not explain the plight of ordinary people, as many thousands of office workers and other middle class were suddenly without plunged into poverty. Drug abuse and prostitution increased, people started moonlighting as taxi drivers and street vendors en masse to make ends meet, and tourists were targeted in violent and desperate scams, thousands abandoned their automobiles, auto production became a third of pre-crisis levels but eventually recovered after many years.

Within East Asia, the bulk of investment and a significant amount of economic weight shifted from Japan and ASEAN to China.

It's still not too late for the situation to turn around, if the Thai elites do the right thing now.

There's a Chinese idiom:

旁观者清，当局者迷

[Rubber Duck]

Again shallow analysis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_financial_crisis

It seems to me that problem arose due to artificial and unsustainable currency pegs to the dollar. Inflation rates in Asia had been significantly higher in Asia than America for many years, which should have meant progressive devaluation of the currencies. The correction seems to have happened in one go, and may have been triggered by erosion of export markets due to sharply increased competition from China.

It would appear that is the first of a series of seismic shocks that will hit the financial markets as China asserts itself as an economic super-power. The first wave hit the so called Asian Tigers. It would seem that these economies are now adjusting rapidly to the changing realities. Future shocks are likely to hit places where changing market fundamentals are poorly understood and economic adjustments have been neglected. These will be the victims of the next large tremor.

My advice would be to monitor the $US dollar carefully and try to work out how a large downward adjustment in its value would impact on your personal finances.

[touchring]

Again shallow analysis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_financial_crisis

It seems to me that problem arose due to artificial and unsustainable currency pegs to the dollar. Inflation rates in Asia had been significantly higher in Asia than America for many years, which should have meant progressive devaluation of the currencies. The correction seems to have happened in one go, and may have been triggered by erosion of export markets due to sharply increased competition from China.

It would appear that is the first of a series of seismic shocks that will hit the financial markets as China asserts itself as an economic super-power. The first wave hit the so called Asian Tigers. It would seem that these economies are now adjusting rapidly to the changing realities. Future shocks are likely to hit places where changing market fundamentals are poorly understood and economic adjustments have been neglected. These will be the victims of the next large tremor.

My advice would be to monitor the $US dollar carefully and try to work out how a large downward adjustment in its value would impact on your personal finances.


Yes, Thailand's struggles is not at the center stage yet, anyway. I just found a crazy american show website on dollar issues - HalTurnerShow.com, http://www.rense.com/general74/report.htm

[Wot]

Since the coup consumer confidence has rocketed along with property prices- a neighbour actually got 20% over his asking price (3 final bidders)! - just ask the shopkeepers, restauranteurs etc here in Chiang Mai - and they are /were Thaksin supporters (his home town).

Carry on as is I say :)

[Rubber Duck]

Frankly, the argument to date is analogous to concluding that Belgium caused the First World War because it obstinately positioned itself between France and Germany and insisted on being too flat.

[mulligan]

Temasek (S'pore goverment investment arm) allowing Thaksin to cash out his stake in Shin Corp by buying his stake (BTW, a breach of regulatons in place to limit foreign investment in certain fields in Thailand) is one of the catalysts that started his removal from office. The Thais were not best pleased...
A tax free US $1.8 billion dollar deal brokered by Temasek (Wife of Mr Lee, Ho Ching is the CEO)
Shady dealings? Make your own mind up...

[Rubber Duck]

Interesting! So what is Touchring's connection in all of this? He is from Singapore, isn't he?

[bwhhisc]

Yes, Thailand's struggles is not at the center stage yet, anyway. I just found a crazy american show website on dollar issues - HalTurnerShow.com, http://www.rense.com/general74/report.htm

OK guys, lets get back to the US economy crashing and burning...sigh

The article touch posted says that will be this Monday morning- :o
I'm a betting man, anyone want to put up a few friendly IDN bets (winner takes all) on this happening? Touchring?

QUOTE: BEIJING 12-15-06 -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros, gold and silver!

China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday. END QUOTE

[Rubber Duck]

OK guys, lets get back to the US economy crashing and burning...sigh

The article touch posted says that will be this Monday morning- :o
I'm a betting man, anyone want to put up a few friendly IDN bets (winner takes all) on this one? Touchring?

QUOTE: BEIJING 12-15-06 -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros, gold and silver!

China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday. END QUOTE

Not being familar with the source, I am interpreting this as being rather tongue in cheek, similar to political skits on British TV. However, it would not be possible to weave this satire, if there were not a hint of truth in some of the undertones.

Don't worry China has always moved in a very cautious deliberate manner. They are not about torpedo the World Economy below the plimsol line. However, the fact the US sent such a high powered delegation will not have gone unnoticed by currency market makers and speculators alike, neither will the fact that they seem to come away empty handed. Even Chamberlain came back from Munich waiving a piece of paper.

[bwhhisc]

Not being familar with the source, I am interpreting this as being rather tongue in cheek, similar to political skits on British TV. However, it would not be possible to weave this satire, if there were not a hint of truth in some of the undertones.

Don't worry China has always moved in a very cautious deliberate manner. They are not about torpedo the World Economy below the plimsol line. However, the fact the US sent such a high powered delegation will not have gone unnoticed by currency market makers and speculators alike, neither will the fact that they seem to come away empty handed. Even Chamberlain came back from Munich waiving a piece of paper.

Oh there will be a big nasty crash someday, it has happened a good few times before, and will happen again. Just amusing that people continually predict a crash week in and week out and eventually one of them is right!

Hopefully the Iraq and Mideast mess will get us off our asses to quit being so dependent on oil, and maybe force some tough choices for those that live there to either make seperate countries by religion or sect which seems the only real solution.

Hopefully the economies of the world will continue to grow and there be a more equitable standard of living around the world.
I would be pissed off to if I had 0 opportunity, and 0 chance to improve my lot in life. That is why I am a supporter of expanding legal immigration to the US, particularly to give workers good jobs and ability to send money back to their families in South America.

Seems that in the middle east, a few decades back and prior to the "high tech media" most common people they didn't probably didn't know that they lived that much different than others around the world...I'm talking 30+ years ago...but that is different now, and times have changed.

[touchring]

OK guys, lets get back to the US economy crashing and burning...sigh

The article touch posted says that will be this Monday morning- :o
I'm a betting man, anyone want to put up a few friendly IDN bets (winner takes all) on this happening? Touchring?

QUOTE: BEIJING 12-15-06 -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros, gold and silver!

China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday. END QUOTE


Yeh, but actually, most the doomsday predictions come from American sources. Yes, China is diversifying it's American dollar reserves (why do you think the American dollar is under so much pressure recently), but will it be possible to dump 1 trillion in one day??

Who's going to be the fool to buy 1 trillion dollar when everyone is fleeing from it?

[bwhhisc]

Yeh, but actually, most the doomsday predictions come from American sources. Yes, China is diversifying it's American dollar reserves (why do you think the American dollar is under so much pressure recently), but will it be possible to dump 1 trillion in one day?? Who's going to be the fool to buy 1 trillion when everyone is fleeing from it?

Giving bad predictions is BIG business in the US.
It is madhouse media over here! Basically they are just entertainers for ratings.

[Rubber Duck]

Yeh, but actually, most the doomsday predictions come from American sources. Yes, China is diversifying it's American dollar reserves (why do you think the American dollar is under so much pressure recently), but will it be possible to dump 1 trillion in one day??

Who's going to be the fool to buy 1 trillion when everyone is fleeing from it?

Sounds a lot, and these are the largest official reserves in the World, but apparently if you include all private holdings of foreign reserves, the UK has about 8x as much. Our official reserves are miniscule.

[touchring]

Oh there will be a big nasty crash someday, it has happened a good few times before, and will happen again.

Has it happened when America's borrowing is at all time high? A plunge in the currency will bring out soaring interest rates and inflation. There is not really a precedence to this situation at least in the last 100 years, not even the great depression, was there a combination of spiraling interest rates, collapse of the real estate market, and widening trade deficit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Debt

Macroeconomists, including the current chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Ben Bernanke, have revived the debt-deflation view of the Great Depression originated by Arthur Cecil Pigou and Irving Fisher. In the 1920s, in the U.S. the widespread use of the home mortgage and credit purchases of automobiles and furniture boosted spending but created consumer debt. People who were deeply in debt when a price deflation occurred were in serious trouble—even if they kept their jobs, they risked default. They drastically cut current spending to keep up time payments, thus lowering demand for new products.

Furthermore, the debt became heavier, because prices and incomes fell 20–50%, but the debts remained at the same dollar amount. With future profits looking poor, capital investment slowed or completely ceased. In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, banks became more conservative in lending. They built up their capital reserves, which intensified the deflationary pressures. The vicious cycle developed and the downward spiral accelerated. This kind of self-aggravating process may have turned a 1930 recession into a 1933 depression.

Soon, there will be another entry in wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Apocalypto

Sounds a lot, and these are the largest official reserves in the World, but apparently if you include all private holdings of foreign reserves, the UK has about 8x as much. Our official reserves are miniscule.


Personal saving rate in Asia is much higher than government reserves. In Singapore, 50% of income goes into some form of savings.

If urban China were to reach that stage, which will happen in the next three decades, that would mean private reserves growing by $15 trillion every single year.

Year 2036: 1 billion population (city dweller) x $15,000 savings per capita = $15 trillion per annum.

We could possibly see nation wealth of one quadrillion in today's dollar achievable this century.

[Rubber Duck]

Has it happened when America's borrowing is at all time high? A plunge in the currency will bring out soaring interest rates and inflation. There is not really a precedence to this situation at least in the last 100 years, not even the great depression, was there a combination of spiraling interest rates, collapse of the real estate market, and widening trade deficit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Soon, there will be another entry in wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Apocalypto

Personal saving rate in Asia is much higher than government reserves. In Singapore, 50% of income goes into some form of savings.

If urban China were to reach that stage, which will happen in the next three decades, that would mean private reserves growing by $15 trillion every single year.

Year 2036: 1 billion population (city dweller) x $15,000 savings per capita = $15 trillion per annum.

We could possibly see nation wealth of one quadrillion in today's dollar achievable this century.

That is not the same as private holdings of foreign currency, which is what I was referring to. Because London is the World Centre for currency trading, there are huge volumes of Dollars, Euros, Yen and just about everything else in paper form. These are not official reserves, but they enable Trade to be carried out on a daily basis without the requirement to pestering people to accepting Sterling. The UK is probably unique in the level of foreign exchange reserves of this nature.

Savings in the West tend to be low because most people sink their equiting into housing.

Here is the list of the 12 languages with the highest GDP. I don't think I have forgotten any country or language. Figures are in trillions of US dollars (1 trillion = 1,000,000,000,000). Note that for English I only added up the "white" English speaking countries (US, UK, Australia, NZ, etc.). If we were to add all the countries where English is used as a business language, it would be hard to decide where to stop. In any case, even with just the "white" English speaking countries, we get the picture that English is arch-dominating in the economic field. The list is more interesting for the relative position of the other languages with each other.

1- English: 16.78 trillion +
2- Japanese: 4.51 trillion
3- German: 3.38 trillion
4- French: 2.94 trillion
5- Chinese (in any dialect form): 2.85 trillion
6- Spanish: 2.81 trillion
7- Italian: 1.72 trillion
8- Portuguese: 1.01 trillion
9- Arabic: 0.99 trillion
10- Russian: 0.89 trillion
11- Dutch and Korean: 0.8 trillion each

Lies, damned lies and statistics!

[touchring]

That is not the same as private holdings of foreign currency, which is what I was referring to. Because London is the World Centre for currency trading, there are huge volumes of Dollars, Euros, Yen and just about everything else in paper form. These are not official reserves, but they enable Trade to be carried out on a daily basis without the requirement to pestering people to accepting Sterling. The UK is probably unique in the level of foreign exchange reserves of this nature.

Savings in the West tend to be low because most people sink their equiting into housing.



Lies, damned lies and statistics!


Nominal GDP based on the US dollar is not really an accurate measure since currency differentials are not taken into account. PPP is a better measure.

[Rubber Duck]

Nominal GDP based on the US dollar is not really an accurate measure since currency differentials are not taken into account. PPP is a better measure.

Frankly, I am not convinced about PPP. I think often Western Economies are inflated against developing nations because they have more bureacrats collecting more data on more things.

I think you need to look at other measures to get a sensible idea of what is going on. Total energy consumption is a good place to start. Of course not all economies use it with the same efficiency, but I would not necessarily place the US at the top of any energy efficiency measures. In many ways poorer countries are more likely to thriftful over the use of energy.

Other measures that can be used are numbers with Televisions, Washing Machines, Mobile Phones, Cars, Computers etc. If such measures were used it is doubtful that the gap would be as big as it appears.