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View Full Version : IE7 AU for latins already in progress and analytics stats for IE7 inaccurate.


touchring
4th February 2007, 03:30 PM
After Drewbert's stats posted on http://www.idnforums.com/forums/8930-is-ie7-for-idns-here-yet-please-share-stats-thks-2.html#post56604 , i'm now considering the possibility that IE7 AU for latins already deep in progress and analytics stats for IE7 severely inaccurate.

Here's a chart showing IE7 versus FF2 for various European countries over the period (November 27 to December 3, 2006)

Article link: http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wpc-fr.net%2Fnews%2Fn3151-firefox-2-devant-ie7-en-europe&langpair=fr%7Cen&hl=en&safe=off&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&prev=%2Flanguage_tools

http://www.wpc-fr.net/images/articles/firefox-2-devant-ie7-en-europe/xiti_ie_ff_1.jpg

Compare with Drew's stat for 48th and 49th week of 5% and 12% for France! :o

France:
Week # IE6 IE7 FF (%ages)
5-2007 48 41 11
4-2007 49 39 12
3-2007 49 39 12
2-2007 52 37 12
1-2007 51 38 11
52-2006 53 37 10
51-2006 58 32 11
50-2006 64 26 10
49-2006 77 12 11
48-2006 85 5 10
47-2006 87 2 10
46-2006 87 2 11
45-2006 88 2 10
44-2006 89 1 10

Going by Drew's chart, 52% of France users are now IDN capable, up from just 11% on the 44th week - that is the last week of October.

I did a quick check on my ND stats for the same period, traffic for French names (i got 150 of them) rose about 95% over the same period (as opposed to 130% for Drew). IDN browsers increased 400% (11%->52%).

I've always speculated that about 80-85% of latin PPC comes from SE - which are browser independent, so if we assume that only 20% of PPC comes from FF, then a 400% increase in IDN browsers will bring about only a doubling of PPC income!

In case any of you want to start the smirking game (accents, or swahili, blah blah) on this thread, please consider SE origin PPC affects all IDN, so whatever that applies to French will affect Japanese or Chinese.

rhys
4th February 2007, 05:30 PM
Touch - I don't understand what you mean by "IDN Browsers". As far as I know, ND doesn't breakout any category for "IDN Browser" nor give any statistics to this effect.

And sorry I'm stupid, but I don't follow your argument at all - could you rephrase?

Drewbert
4th February 2007, 05:56 PM
That 130% traffic increase I talked about was for ONE French name. I didn't check across the board.

Across the board is trickier to do because I'd have to exclude the names I've grabbed recently.

Rubber Duck
4th February 2007, 05:59 PM
Touch - I don't understand what you mean by "IDN Browsers". As far as I know, ND doesn't breakout any category for "IDN Browser" nor give any statistics to this effect.

And sorry I'm stupid, but I don't follow your argument at all - could you rephrase?

Well it appears to be an MS problem not understanding what is require to resolve through the DNS. That is why we have had such an issue with the IDN.

If Tony Choy is to be believed, MS designed IE6 to resolve through a full Unicode DNS, which it probably would do if anyone ever considers building such an animal. Consequently IE6 has for several years been the only browser that does not support IDN. So if you wish to know what the statistics are for IDN supporting browsers, all you have to do effectively is deduct IE6 from 100%. I don't think anyone is interested in the traffic you might receive from IE5 or earlier!

Drewbert
4th February 2007, 06:01 PM
What people need to realise is that many countries, unlike the USA have little competition in the ISP arena. Frequently, the dominant telco is the dominant ISP and well over 50% of surfers log in through them. Once they put a link on their home page to ie7, BAMM.

If that version hijacks type-in's, traffic to IDN .com's may even go DOWN as IE7 takes over from IE6/plugin.

Touch, you need to fully explain what you mean by "SE origin PPC". I can't see how that would affect type-in traffic.

Rubber Duck
4th February 2007, 06:04 PM
What people need to realise is that many countries, unlike the USA have little competition in the ISP arena. Frequently, the dominant telco is the dominant ISP and well over 50% of surfers log in through them. Once they put a link on their home page to ie7, BAMM.

If that version hijacks type-in's, traffic to IDN .com's may even go DOWN as IE7 takes over from IE6/plugin.

Yes, this could well happen very quickly in some locations. All new users with an ISP will be distributed the software. Also if you ISP emails you and instructs you to upgrade, chances are you will do it! It is possible that in China the various ISP will coordinate and issue such software together!

blastfromthepast
4th February 2007, 06:39 PM
What we need to do is issue our own IE7 version that redirects typein's to .com (or in Bill's case, .net). MS already provides the toolkit. Just the power of getting such a version installed in a few internet cafe's would be of lasting benefit.

Drewbert
4th February 2007, 07:02 PM
Interesting concept.

I just had a play with Firefox 1.5 / Mac

If I type in a keyword, it removes the accent, then if it finds a Wikipedia page for it, it brings that up. If not, it redirects to Google results for the term.

That's not good for type-in's!

blastfromthepast
4th February 2007, 07:04 PM
Few people on the Mac use Firefox, because the fonts look ugly compared with Safari.

Drewbert
4th February 2007, 07:05 PM
To distribute a custom browser effectively, we'd need it done for every language version, and have a range of native language banners done.

Then we could compete to see who could get the most downloads :)

bwhhisc
4th February 2007, 07:17 PM
What we need to do is issue our own IE7 version that redirects typein's to .com (or in Bill's case, .net). MS already provides the toolkit. Just the power of getting such a version installed in a few internet cafe's would be of lasting benefit.

Yes, there may be some underlying strategy here (since most of the top .coms were already gone anyway) lol.
When "they" realize all the 'foreigners' have the .coms they just might redirect those typein's to .net :)

I already gave you a heads up about non internet users sublimally taking .com to the transliteral of .communist..."strikingly and confusingly similar" as many attorney would say. lol (Russia excluded on this speculation since they have a close transliteral for "com" in their language).
-dNg-

Drewbert
4th February 2007, 08:02 PM
Actually, what is happening in Fiefox 1.5/Mac is that it is automatically taking you to whatever is the first listing at Google for that search term, and taking you to Google if there are no matches.

We really do need to find out what's happening in ie7 localised editions.

touchring
4th February 2007, 10:55 PM
Touch - I don't understand what you mean by "IDN Browsers". As far as I know, ND doesn't breakout any category for "IDN Browser" nor give any statistics to this effect.

And sorry I'm stupid, but I don't follow your argument at all - could you rephrase?


IDN browsers meaning browsers that support IDN. ND doesn't provide stats for browser agent, so we need to log the stats using other methods, e.g. web server logs, analytics, etc.

That 130% traffic increase I talked about was for ONE French name. I didn't check across the board.

Across the board is trickier to do because I'd have to exclude the names I've grabbed recently.

You can check a few more names. Yes, you need to exclude any name that is grabbed or parked earlier than August - otherwise the SE surge factor will cloud the stats.

Touch, you need to fully explain what you mean by "SE origin PPC". I can't see how that would affect type-in traffic.


SE origin PPC - meaning all PPC or adsense earnings that do not come from type-ins on the browser URL address bar.

Actually, what is happening in Fiefox 1.5/Mac is that it is automatically taking you to whatever is the first listing at Google for that search term, and taking you to Google if there are no matches.


Yes, Google pays FF i think to do that. Anyway, redirection to search engine is the general practice, i've not seen any browser or plugin that appends .com - doesn't make money and doesn't make sense.

blastfromthepast
4th February 2007, 11:27 PM
Yes, Google pays FF i think to do that. Anyway, redirection to search engine is the general practice, i've not seen any browser or plugin that appends .com - doesn't make money and doesn't make sense.

Makes perfect sense from an interface point of view, and this is a feature many endusers request, because it makes it easier for them to go to they site they want.

If you want search, you type in a search box. If you want a domain, you type in the address box, where domains go.

IE used to have this as standard too several versions ago, as this is the default behavior that makes sense. Apple's Safari and Opera are the two broswers that continue this.

touchring
4th February 2007, 11:45 PM
Makes perfect sense from an interface point of view, and this is a feature many endusers request, because it makes it easier for them to go to they site they want.

If you want search, you type in a search box. If you want a domain, you type in the address box, where domains go.

IE used to have this as standard too several versions ago, as this is the default behavior that makes sense. Apple's Safari and Opera are the two broswers that continue this.


Do u mean that safari and opera will append .com?

Drewbert
5th February 2007, 01:14 AM
Safari certainly does.

Only problem is, if you type in a 2 word phrase, they puts an HTML encoded space in there (%20) and then pop the .com on the end.

Which is silly, considering % is a banned character in DNS and domain names aren't supposed to be HTML encoded :)

Would have been nice if IDN had allowed the use of a % character.

blastfromthepast
5th February 2007, 01:22 AM
Safari certainly does.

Only problem is, if you type in a 2 word phrase, they puts an HTML encoded space in there (%20) and then pop the .com on the end.

Which is silly, considering % is a banned character in DNS and domain names aren't supposed to be HTML encoded :)

Would have been nice if IDN had allowed the use of a % character.

It is worth reporting this bug to Apple.

Yes. Safari and Opera send you to the .com upon pressing enter/return. This is the source of the majority of Russian traffic, since Opera is widespread. This is the reason some idners here are promoting Opera.

Drewbert
5th February 2007, 01:28 AM
I think I tried reporting it to one of the guys doing the HTML engine, but he didn't seem to grasp the situation, IIRC.

touchring
5th February 2007, 05:10 AM
Cool for Opera to do that, but i think we shouldn't assume that they would do this forever - when Google will pay millions to browser makers to default to their search engine.

Btw, i was working out French multiplier based on Drewbert's web server data, and my own French PPC for about 150 names parked before August, all dictionary generics, on a week basis (instead of 30 days).

Some interesting results:

Week 44, 06:

Week # IE6 IE7 FF (%ages)
44-2006 89 1 10
Total FF/IE7 ratio: 11%

PPC Views CTR Avg PPC
100 (index) 222 % 39.43 US$ 0.08


Week 5, 07:

Week # IE6 IE7 FF (%ages)
5-2007 48 41 11
Total FF/IE7 ratio: 52%

PPC Views CTR Avg PPC
183 405 % 39.32 US$ 0.08


From week 44, 06 to week 5, 07, FF/IE7 ratio increased by 472%, but views increased only by 83%.

If we assume that 18% of PPC views come from natural type-in, then a 472% increase on that 18% part will result in a 85% increase on total views (SE+type-in).

Therefore i estimate that my PPC traffic is about 17-18% type-ins, and my FF/IE7 Multiplier should be [ (100%/11%) * 0.18 ] + 1 = 2.63.

Say, if i'm earning $300 a month from my French generics in the last week of October, i should expect 2.63 *$300 = $789 on full market penetration of FF and IE7.

Based on 11% FF/IE7 marketshare, the multiplier is only 2.63 for French for my case!! It would be much lower for Spanish and German since their FF ratio is higher.

Now the golden question. What's the FF marketshare for japanese and chinese?

Those of you with japanese websites will already know the answer, for those of us still looking for an answer, we should be able to work out the real multiplier by June, assuming that AU comes by April, judging by the speed of takeup in Europe.

:)

Drewbert
5th February 2007, 07:24 AM
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyName=open_source&articleId=9010159&taxonomyId=88&intsrc=kc_top%20

"French students to get open-source software on USB key
High school students likely to get Firefox 2 Web browser, Thunderbird e-mail client and other software"

>Now the golden question. What's the FF marketshare for japanese and chinese?

Based on fairly solid traffic, my guess for China is...

IE6 95.15%
IE7 3.12%
Firefox 1.2%
Safari 0.28%
Opera 0.26%

touchring
5th February 2007, 07:44 AM
[url]
>Now the golden question. What's the FF marketshare for japanese and chinese?

Based on fairly solid traffic, my guess for China is...

IE6 95.15%
IE7 3.12%
Firefox 1.2%
Safari 0.28%
Opera 0.26%


This is the easy part, the difficult part is to figure out how many IE6 got that CNNIC plugin (Note: I'm not talking about VeriSign plugin) installed.

Rubber Duck
5th February 2007, 07:51 AM
In the Far East the situation is entirely different than in France. As IDN will only ever reach a small proportion of domains in Europe and because we must assume that there is already a type-in culture, it would not be reasonable to expect the same response as you will get in the Far East. You are persisting with a bottom up approach which is fundamentally flawed.

Once Chinese content switches to IDN and there is widespread browser support a type-in culture should emerge in a way that has never previously existed to any great degree. Once that happens all your projections will become nonsense.

Drewbert
5th February 2007, 08:06 AM
A type-in culture is useless to us, if the browser redirects those type-in's straight to a google listed website, or to google results page, as Firefox does now.

At this rate, gaining a 1st page result in the local most popular SE will be the only way to get significant traffic to an IDN.

It's all down to the browsers, and it looks like IE7 isn't going to produce the traffic we thought it would.

But don't worry, browser type-in hijacking affacts ASCII domains equally.

touchring
5th February 2007, 08:14 AM
In the Far East the situation is entirely different than in France. As IDN will only ever reach a small proportion of domains in Europe and because we must assume that there is already a type-in culture, it would not be reasonable to expect the same response as you will get in the Far East. You are persisting with a bottom up approach which is fundamentally flawed.

Once Chinese content switches to IDN and there is widespread browser support a type-in culture should emerge in a way that has never previously existed to any great degree. Once that happens all your projections will become nonsense.


We're not going to try to make projections to future type-in culture multiplier based on a type-in culture, which will evolve for Asian languages, and which i believe will make some, even if minimal impact even on Latins.

All that Drewbert and i are trying to do is to estimate the multiplier for IE7/FF, be it German, French or Japanese, ceteris paribus.

Btw, i just checked, IE6 now seems to be working for IDN.cn in China even without plugin - at least for my assistant's PC. When he types in IDN.cn, the browser redirects to name.cnnic.cn (and within a split second), redirects again to the punycode.cn. Or has a plugin being secretly installed (like a spyware?).

? ? ?

Rubber Duck
5th February 2007, 08:21 AM
We're not going to try to make projections to future type-in culture multiplier based on a type-in culture, which will evolve for Asian languages, and which i believe will make some, even if minimal impact even on Latins.

All that Drewbert and i are trying to do is to estimate the multiplier for IE7/FF, be it German, French or Japanese, ceteris paribus.

Btw, i just checked, IE6 now seems to be working for IDN.cn in China even without plugin - at least for my assistant's PC. When he types in IDN.cn, the browser redirects to name.cnnic.cn (and within a split second), redirects again to the punycode.cn.

? ? ?

This means that Punycode conversion is occurring somewhere between the ISP and the DNS. It maybe that CNNIC has their own punycode converter in the system somewhere.

touchring
5th February 2007, 08:24 AM
This means that Punycode conversion is occurring somewhere between the ISP and the DNS. It maybe that CNNIC has their own punycode converter in the system somewhere.


Yes, i double checked, it always refresh, doesn't go direct, no plugin does that. Another thing, they do not resolve for idn.com, even latins.com. I wonder if they "used" to resolve for idn.com.

Also, I tested with 3 PCs with IE6, 2 of them will refresh and be redirected to 北京.cn (punycode), the 3rd doesn't, not sure what's the reason.

A type-in culture is useless to us, if the browser redirects those type-in's straight to a google listed website, or to google results page, as Firefox does now.

At this rate, gaining a 1st page result in the local most popular SE will be the only way to get significant traffic to an IDN.

It's all down to the browsers, and it looks like IE7 isn't going to produce the traffic we thought it would.

But don't worry, browser type-in hijacking affacts ASCII domains equally.


I just checked, IE7 will redirect to MSN.com search engine for keyword type-ins.

The FF/IE7 multiplier of 2.6 for French is approximately close to what i had expected. I've been quietly expecting a multiplier of about 2.3x based on 20% type-in, and 15% FF mkt share. I think a 2-3 times range should be quite reasonable. I've not made projections for other languages due to lack of info.

Rubber Duck
5th February 2007, 08:53 AM
I just checked, IE7 will redirect to MSN.com search engine for keyword type-ins.

The FF/IE7 multiplier of 2.6 for French is approximately close to what i had expected. I've been quietly expecting a multiplier of about 2.3x based on 20% type-in, and 15% FF mkt share. I think a 2-3 times range should be quite reasonable. I've not made projections for other languages due to lack of info.

You need to be very careful assuming that what you see is what others see.

Is MSN your default search engine in IE7?

touchring
5th February 2007, 08:59 AM
You need to be very careful assuming that what you see is what others see.

Is MSN your default search engine in IE7?


Live search is default - first time i checked the search settings, but i do not recall giving my IE7 permission to use Live search!

With the millions in PPC they can earn from this redirection, i do not think this practice will end any soon. We have to depend on keyword.com type-ins, and development.

Rubber Duck
5th February 2007, 09:03 AM
Yes, i double checked, it always refresh, doesn't go direct, no plugin does that. Another thing, they do not resolve for idn.com, even latins.com. I wonder if they "used" to resolve for idn.com.

Also, I tested with 3 PCs with IE6, 2 of them will refresh and be redirected to 北京.cn (punycode), the 3rd doesn't, not sure what's the reason.


I think the interesting point here is that they are now in a postion to convert all Official Government and State owned websites to IDN. Of course they will all be dot CN and in the short-term this will give dot CN a huge boost vis-a-vis dot com. However, it is likely that when dot com is supported by IE7, there will already be a large number of high profile IDN sites out there. We have already seen how they can copy and clone the content of their existing sites, substitute the domain names in all the URL links and run a parallel IDN site. I am sure they have the resources to bang up their government websites in very short order. It might even be that for the politics of driving this through, they redirect and stop advertising the ASCII site addresses.

Drewbert
5th February 2007, 09:35 AM
Also, I tested with 3 PCs with IE6, 2 of them will refresh and be redirected to 北京.cn (punycode), the 3rd doesn't, not sure what's the reason.


Please tell us what DNS servers each of those machines is set to.

touchring
7th February 2007, 09:06 AM
Please tell us what DNS servers each of those machines is set to.


Just the dsl router ip address, as usual.


By the way, i've worked out a formula to project my French multiple.


FF/IE7 Multiplier = [ % of direct navigation * (100% / % of FF/IE7) ] + 100%


End October Multiplier:
FF/IE7 Multiplier = [ 18% * (100% / 11%') ] + 100% = 2.62

End January Multiplier:
FF/IE7 Multiplier = [ 18% * (100% / 52%') ] + 100% = 1.34


' Note: 11%, 52% are based on Drewbert's stats.

So, say if you are getting $100 a month from French PPC the last 30 days, based on assumed formula, you should expect another 30%-40% boost in PPC with full market saturation for FF/IE7.


I'm also keen to work out for Japanese, but i do not have the full stats. So far, between End Oct and End Jan, my Japanese PPC rose about 110%, which isn't far from French's 90% increment. But to calculate the real multiplier, we'll need to know the change in FF/IE7 marketshare over the same period.